Ms. Shamaila Fatima will present her APS as per the details below:
Date: 25th February 2025
Time: 1200 - 1330 hrs.
Venue: Conference Room No.1, C-TARA Office
Topic: Development of drought monitoring and early warning system at the local level: A case study of Maharashtra State
Guide: Prof Parmeshwar D Udmale
Co-Guide: Prof Satish B Agnihotri
RPC members: Prof Amit Arora, Prof Sarthak Gaurav
Abstract:
Drought is a recurring natural disaster that has intensified due to climate change, affecting over 35% of the global population between 2000 and 2019. It has significant socio-economic and environmental consequences, particularly in regions highly dependent on rainfall for agriculture. As global water demand is projected to increase by 55% between 2000 and 2050, ensuring sustainable water management is critical to mitigating drought risks. In India, where 70% of total crop water needs depend on monsoon rainfall, drought poses a major challenge to food security and rural livelihoods. Maharashtra, one of the most drought-prone states, has experienced frequent droughts, with 66% of its land area affected in 2023 alone.
The existing drought declaration process in India follows the Manual for Drought Management (2016) and incorporates parameters such as rainfall, crop conditions, groundwater levels, and reservoir storage. However, the declaration timeline (October 31 for Kharif and March 31 for Rabi), limited real-time monitoring, and data availability challenges hinder timely relief and mitigation efforts. Although dashboards like the India Drought Monitor and Maharashtra Drought Assessment Tool (MahaMADAT) provide district-level insights, there remains a gap in localized drought monitoring and early warning systems.
The present study aims to enhance drought preparedness by reviewing global drought monitoring systems and early warning mechanisms, assessing India's drought declaration criteria, and analyzing historical drought triggers (Trigger 1) in Maharashtra at the sub-district level. By examining spatial and temporal drought trends, the study provides insights into how current drought assessments can be improved. The findings will contribute to developing more effective early warning frameworks, supporting policymakers, researchers, and disaster management authorities in mitigating the impact of drought in Maharashtra and similar regions.