Mr. Afsal Najeeb will present his Ph.D. defence as per the details below:

Date: 13th November 2025

Time: 10 AM (India), 3.30 PM (Australia)  

Venue for IITB members: Telepresence Room, Ground Floor, IITB-Monash Building

Title: Modelling Residential Electricity Consumption in India: Theory, Indicators and Bottom-Up Estimation

Online Meeting Link: https://monash.zoom.us/j/87822510623?pwd=ATa85mHn6aAWttv4kmOGbaCM0r51Us.1

Meeting ID: 87822510623, Passcode: 702390

External Examiner: Prof. Sanjay K Singh, IIM Lucknow

 Chairperson: Prof. Anil Kottantharayil

Internal Examiner: Prof. Santanu Bandyopadhyay

Supervisors: Prof. Anand Rao, Prof. Vinod Mishra

Co-supervisors: Prof. Satish Agnihotri, Prof. Srinivas Sridharan  

Abstract:

Residential electricity consumption (REC) in India has been increasing rapidly and contributes to over a quarter of India’s total electricity consumption. The sector is dynamic and diverse, with wide variations in consumption levels across geographic regions, states, and social groups. Attempts to model REC in India have relied upon a top-down macroeconomic approach, mostly focusing on aggregated macro-economic measures of output or prosperity. The research aims to create bottom-up REC models in India using disaggregated household-level data. A systematic literature review revealed about 113 factors that have been used to model REC across South Asian and Southeast Asian countries. A conceptual model for studying REC was framed with inspiration from the human ecosystem model found in interior design literature. To understand the determinants of REC, a bottom-up REC model for India was formulated using the Consumer Pyramid Household Survey (CPHS) dataset for the period 2014-2019. Results indicate the evolution of electricity as a necessity across India, during this period of rapid expansion in electricity access. The difference in the urban income elasticity of consumption and rural price elasticity are greater than previously understood. Further, REC models which would be suitable for district levels were developed using sparse matrix based variable selection methods. District level models for Thiruvananthapuram, Bengaluru, Jalna, Bhopal, Kullu and North 24 Parganas were built. The district level results indicated a ubiquitous significance of household income and the price of electricity as important drivers of REC, while other determinants varied. The absolute average temperature was identified as a consistent determinant over calculated measures of the effect of climate, which is a novel addition to literature. The methodology enables district-level planning for electricity and utility services, addressing the current absence of models tailored to smaller geographies.